CBR expects annual inflation in Russia to accelerate to 7.6% in Q1

MOSCOW. Feb 28 (Interfax) - Annual inflation in Russia might amount to 7.6% in the first quarter of 2024, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) said in commentary on its medium-term macroeconomic forecast.

The CBR expects quarter-on-quarter inflation, seasonally adjusted in annual terms to be 5.7% in the first quarter.

The CBR forecast that Russian GDP growth will slow to 4.3% year-on-year in the first quarter from an estimated 4.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023. It projected that the economy will grow by 1-2% in 2024, 1-2% in 2025 and 1.5-2.5% in 2026.

The CBR still expects annual inflation to slow to 4.0-4.5% in 2024 given its monetary policy, and stay around 4% in future.

Annual inflation accelerated to 7.42% as of February 19 from 7.38% as of February 12, according to estimates based on data from the Federal Statistics Service. Inflation amounted to 7.42% in 2023.

"It is still premature to judge the stability of emerging disinflationary trends. Current inflation, seasonally adjusted, still remains significantly higher than 4%," the CBR said.