Russian wheat exports could total 52.9 mln tonnes in current season, 48.1 mln tonnes in future one - consensus forecast

MOSCOW. Feb 19 (Interfax) - The Center for Price Indices (a subsidiary of Gazprombank ), which began publishing quarterly consensus forecasts of professional analysts on the agricultural market last November, has updated its estimates in February.

"On key indicators, analysts' views have become more optimistic since November 2023. Expectations for wheat exports in the current agricultural season (July 2023-June 2024) have been significantly revised upwards - from 50.4 million to 52.9 million tonnes," the center said in a statement.

The estimate of wheat exports in the new season (July 2024-June 2025) has been raised as well. The consensus forecast is now 48.1 million tonnes compared with 46.4 million tons in November.

The grain harvest for the new farming year is forecast at 141.5 million tonnes compared with 134.2 million tons in the previous estimate, including wheat at 90.5 million tonnes compared to 87.3 million tonnes.

"But there was a surprising consensus on sunflower oil production and exports. Against the background of actual growth in the gross sunflower harvest, analysts revised the parameters of oil output in the current agricultural year (September 2023 - August 2024) from 7 million to 6.8 million tonnes, exports - from 4.6 million to 4.3 million tonnes," the statement said. "The difference of opinions on the volume of exports of the second most important product of Russian agricultural exports, although it is already the equator of the season, indicates the lack of market understanding of the strategies of oil and fat companies amid growing supply of raw materials for processing. According to optimists, next season Russia may even take first place in sunflower oil exports," it said.

The consensus forecast for two of the three types of oilseeds for the new season is lower than previous estimates. Thus, the sunflower harvest may amount to 15.5 million tonnes (15.6 million tonnes in the November forecast), rapeseed - 4.2 million tonnes (4.3 million tonnes). Soybean harvest estimates are unchanged at 5.9 million tonnes.

Sunflower oil production is forecast at 6.4 million tonnes vs. 6.8 million tonnes, with exports at 4.2 million tons vs. 4.5 million tons in the November consensus forecast.