13 Feb 2024 16:28

OPEC increases liquid hydrocarbon production estimate for Russia in 2023 by 140,000 bpd to 10.92 million bpd, 2024 estimate increases 70,000 bpd to 10.84 million bpd

MOSCOW. Feb 13 (Interfax) - Production of liquid hydrocarbons (oil and condensate) in Russia decreased 110,000 bpd in 2023 to 10.92 million bpd, OPEC's monthly report said.

The previous report forecast that Russia would produce 10.78 million bpd in 2023. Therefore, the estimate increased 140,000 bpd.

OPEC said that the forecast takes Russia's voluntary commitments to reduce oil supplies to foreign markets into consideration.

The report says that OPEC analysts estimate December oil and condensate production in Russia at 10.8 million bpd, 90,000 bpd less than in November. This number consists of 9.5 million bpd of oil and 1.3 million bpd of condensate.

OPEC expects liquid hydrocarbon production in Russia to decrease 80,000 bpd in 2024 to 10.84 million bpd. A month earlier, OPEC analysts were expecting production to reach 10.77 million bpd. Therefore, the 2024 forecast for oil and condensate production in Russia was increased 70,000 bpd.

The OPEC forecast for 2025 provides for an increase in Russian oil production of 30,000 bpd versus the previous year to 10.87 million bpd. The month before, the forecast was 10.81 million bpd. Therefore, it was increased 60,000 bpd.

OPEC predicts that in 2024, in addition to increased production at some fields, that there will be new projects launched by Rosneft , Russneft , Lukoil , Gazprom , Neftisy and TenderResource. However, this growth will be offset by a decrease in production from mature fields.

OPEC expects that a slight increase in production could be supported in 2025 by new projects from Rosneft, Lukoil, Russneft, Sheshmaoil, Gazprom and Sintek-Oil.