30 Jan 2024 16:58

IMF raises Russian 2024 GDP growth outlook to 2.6% from 1.1%

MOSCOW. Jan 30 (Interfax) - The International Monetary Fund has raised its outlook for Russian GDP growth in 2024 to 2.6% from the 1.1% it was predicting in October, the IMF said in its January World Economic Outlook update, published on Tuesday.

The IMF's expectations for this year are close to those of the Russian Economic Development Ministry, which is forecasting 2.3%, and way above the Central Bank of Russia's 0.5%-1.5% forecast.

The IMF expects the Russian economy to grow 1.1% in 2025.

It estimated the Russian economy had grown 3% in 2023 - the October outlook was 2.2%, July - 1.5%, April - 0.7% and January - 0.3%, while the forecast given in October 2022 was for the Russian economy to fall 2.3% in 2023.

The latest 2023 estimate is still lower than that given by Maxim Reshetnikov, the Russian economic development minister. "We expect the first estimate of GDP growth in 2023 will be 3.5%. If the scale of subsequent adjustments is on a par with previous years - and according to our indirect estimates it will definitely not be less - then the final growth estimate could be around 4%," he said on January 17.

The Central Bank has yet to revise its October estimate of 2.2%-2.7% GDP growth for 2023, but said in a press release following the meeting of its board of directors in December that growth would exceed 3%.

The IMF said Russian GDP had grown more than expected in 2023 on account of high spending on the military-industrial complex and private consumption, supported by wage growth in a tight labor market.