Currency outflows from Ukrainian migrants could decrease 28% in 2024 - NBU

MOSCOW. Jan 26 (Interfax) - Ukrainians abroad continue to generate a significant outflow of currency from Ukraine, but in 2024 it is expected to decrease 28% to $13 billion from $18 billion in 2023, Ukrainian media reported, citing the deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Sergei Nikolaichuk.

"In 2022, this outflow was almost $20 billion. Last year it decreased slightly to about $18 billion. This year we expect these import volumes under the travel article to decrease significantly, to approximately $13 billion, primarily due to the adaptation of our migrants abroad. This is also partly due to changes in migrants' tax residency," he said at a briefing on YouTube.

Regarding the migration forecast, Nikolaichuk said that next year, as security risks decrease, the National Bank expects about 400,000 people to return.

NBU Chairman Andrei Pyshny, stated that, despite NBU forecasts made in 2023 "which predicted a certain return of the migration flow that left Ukraine," this did not happen, but on the contrary, there was "a certain outflow."

"In exactly the same way, the 2024 forecast is quite cautious about the return of migrants to Ukraine. First of all, because of security risks, of course, but also a more significant influence today is the factor of assimilation; the adaptation of our citizens to lives they are starting to build abroad," the head of the National Bank said.

This is a serious challenge, and it is considered accordingly even when determining the parameters of the dynamics of the inflation process, he said.

The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimates the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe at the end of last year at 5.939 million, with 6.343 million around the world.