Russia's current account surplus drops 77.3% to $50.5 bln in 11M 2023 - Central Bank estimate
MOSCOW. Dec 13 (Interfax) - Russia's current account surplus dropped 77.3% to $50.5 billion in January-November 2023 from $223 billion the previous year, according to the estimate of the country's balance of payments published on the website of the Central Bank of Russia.
According to the CBR's preliminary estimate, the current account surplus totaled $4.3 billion in November 2023 after a surplus of $4.9 billion in October. This estimate has been updated, with the CBR having reported a surplus of $11.2 billion in November.
The positive foreign trade balance in goods fell 63% year-on-year to $109 billion in January-November 2023 from $290.4 billion in January-November 2022.
The reduction in the October exports estimate was due to lower physical volume of exports of some goods according to actual customs statistics compared to preliminary estimates based on extrapolation of data for the previous months, the CBR said in a commentary.
The merchandise trade surplus narrowed 63% to $109 billion in 11M 2023 from $290.4 billion a year previously. The trade surplus declined to $8.4 billion in November from $9.4 billion in October, the preliminary estimate being $14.3 billion.
The deficit in services trade widened 50% to $29 billion in 11M 2023 from $9.5 billion the previous year as a result of a decrease in volume of other services provided to non-residents, as well as a growth in imports of travel services, the CBR said. The services trade deficit fell to $1.8 billion in November from $23 billion in October.
The total deficit in primary and secondary income fell by $18.5 billion or 29% to $29.5 billion from $48 billion in 11M mostly as a result of a significant drop in dividends accrued by Russian companies in favor of non-residents compared to the previous year.
Foreign assets grew $40.4 billion in 11M 2023, compared with growth of $95.5 billion a year previously. As in 2022, an increase in other investment in the form of accounts receivable, including transactions on outstanding foreign trade settlements, as well as a growth in direct investment played a significant role, the CBR said.
External liabilities grew $1 billion after falling $119.4 billion in corresponding period of 2022.
The Central Bank's baseline scenario, updated at the end of October, projects that if Brent crude trades at $83 per barrel there will be a current account surplus of $60 billion, visible trade surplus of $122 billion, deficit in services trade of $31 billion and primary and secondary incomes deficit also of $31 billion.