Sberbank expecting retail lending to slow in 2024, pick up in two years thereafter

MOSCOW. Dec 6 (Interfax) - Sberbank expects retail lending to slow in 2024 due to regulatory restrictions, but then accelerate in 2025-2026, Taras Skvortsov, vice president and director of the bank's finance department, said during Sberbank's Investor Day.

"Next year, lending will be under pressure. The main reason for this is high rates in the market, which will remain high next year. At the same time, in retail lending, an even bigger problem will come in the form of regulatory restrictions that were introduced in the second half of this year - these are increased macro surcharges and especially macroprudential limits," Skvortsov said.

"Even at the moment when we see a reduction in rates, consumer lending and credit card lending, just the two areas that are most targeted by regulation today, they will grow more slowly until we see an easing of that regulation," he said.

According to him, the bank also expects mortgage lending to slow in 2024 due to more stringent conditions, higher down payments and limits on the maximum loan amount.

At the same time, the bank expects acceleration of retail and corporate lending over the next two years amid an expected reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank and gradual easing of regulation.

"In 2025-2026, taking into rate reduction, taking into account, as we expect, the gradual weakening of regulation, and, of course, the pent-up demand that is now formed by customers, we expect that retail lending and corporate lending will accelerate," he said.

In addition, the bank expects an increase in household funds in 2024, and in the future, on the contrary, a slowing in this indicator.

"The regulator's current policy and high rates stimulate savings, the savings model, and therefore for next year we expect a very good inflow of funds into the bank," Skvortsov said.

"Further down the line, as rates slow down, as they are lowered, we also anticipate a decline in deposit growth to about 10% per year," he added.

According to the bank's forecasts, GFP growth will be 1.2% annually for the next three years. At the same time, inflation will slow down and reach the Central Bank's target level of 4% by 2025. The key rate will follow inflation down, and the lender forecasts it at 8% for 2025, Skvortsov said.