Nornickel sees falling palladium demand for catalytic converters being replaced by new applications by 2030
DUBAI/MOSCOW. Dec 6 (Interfax) - Nornickel expects the decline of demand for palladium for use in automobile catalytic converters to be completely offset by 2030 by the launch of new products from its portfolio onto the global market, the Russian mining giant's head of new product development, Dmitry Izotov told reporters on the sidelines of the COP28 climate conference.
This foremost refers to products in hydrogen energy, new chemicals and solar power, he said.
Palladium can be a more effective alternative to platinoids and other metals, Nornickel said. At present, catalytic converters for automobiles with internal combustion engines, demand for which is falling due to the growth of electric transport, account for over 80% of demand for palladium.
"For the current set of projects, we expect that their market launch will make it possible to increase demand for palladium by 40 tonnes by 2030. This is a conservative estimate for demand for the projects that are now already in development," Izotov said.
New applications for palladium will offset the decline in demand for catalytic converters, which is expected to total an estimated 15 tonnes, he said. "Our objective is to make up for this potential surplus and create a reserve for further increasing demand for the product," Izotov said.
Global palladium demand now totals about 290 tonnes, with 200 tonnes supplied by primary palladium production and 90 tonnes by recycling. Catalytic converters account for 240 tonnes of this demand. Nornicikel produces more than 40% of the world's palladium, or about 85 tonnes.
However, the catalytic converter market is expected to remain fairly large in all anticipated scenarios for palladium, Izotov said. "There are no expectations that the world will completely switch to electric transport. Gasoline and hybrid automobiles, in which palladium is used to a greater degree, will continue to have a significant share, including through replacement of diesel ones," he said.
Nornickel now has about 20 products based on palladium at various stages of development. A number of them are related to hydrogen energy, where palladium is used at average stage of the production chain in the form of catalysts or membranes. In the course of tests, replacing 30% of iridium with palladium in catalysts for electrolyzers tripled catalytic activity and replacing 25% of platinum in catalysts for fuel cells doubled catalytic activity, Izotov said.
In the first quarter of 2024, these products will undergo pilot testing at "respected Asian partners" and will be sent to end consumers for testing at industrial facilities, he said. "By the end of next year we expect to get a whole range of products for hydrogen energy and new chemicals that will be successfully tested at customers' facilities," Izotov said.
Nornickel's investments in developing new products based on palladium will exceed $100 million on a horizon of five to ten years, he said.
In solar energy, the company is concluding fundamental research on photocells based on palladium chalcogenide and prototypes are expected before the end of 2024. Fundamental research is also being done in the area of superconductors and supercapacitors for energy storage and transportation, the goal of which is to "find just as large a market as catalytic converters are now," Izotov said.