Russian Central Bank maintains inflation forecast at 7%-7.5% for 2023

NOVOSIBIRSK. Nov 22 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) maintains its inflation forecast at 7%-7.5% for 2023, Andrei Gangan, first deputy governor of the CBR monetary policy department, told Interfax.

"Our forecast thus far is 7%-7.5%, and we have not changed it," Gangan said about the likelihood of inflation at the end of the current year exceeding the upper limit of the range.

According to data from Russia's Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), annual inflation accelerated to 7.27% as on November 13 from 7.07% as on November 7 and 6.69% at the end of October, when calculated from weekly dynamics, and accelerated to 7.16 % from 6.99% on November 7, when calculated from average daily data for November 2022. The latest weekly data will be released on Wednesday.

The CBR's next meeting of the board of directors on the key rate is scheduled for December 15, and it will not be a pivotal one. The CBR does not intend to update the medium-term macroeconomic forecast based on the results of the meeting.

Inflation expectations are one of the important factors for which the CBR accounts when taking its decision on the key rate.

According to a short survey published last week by InFOM, inflation expectations of Russian households jumped to 12.2% in November from 11.2% in October. Observed inflation rose to 15.1% in November from 13.9% in October.

The CBR will account for these data and the results of the December survey when taking a decision on the key rate on December 15, Gangan noted.

"In general, inflation expectations always concern us. This is one of the important indicators at which the CBR looks in terms of analyzing the current inflation picture. Therefore, the dynamics of inflation expectations, among other matters, will be taken into account. We will receive the latest data in December, and this will be taken into account in the December decision [on the key rate]," Gangan said.