Russia's current account surplus drops 74.3% to $53.8 bln in 10M 2023 - Central Bank estimate
MOSCOW. Nov 14 (Interfax) - Russia's current account surplus dropped 74.3% year-on-year to $53.8 billion in January-October 2023 from $208.8 billion the previous year, according to the estimate of the country's balance of payments published on the website of the Central Bank of Russia.
Russia's foreign trade surplus in goods fell 61.5% year-on-year to $104 billion in 10M 2023 from $271.6 billion in 10M 2022.
The Central Bank said in a commentary that the reduction in the current account surplus was due to a decrease in surplus of trade balance by $167.6 billion due to a decline in exports by $138.7 billion and a growth in imports of goods by $29.0 billion.
The deficit in the balance on services expanded $9.7 billion or 56% to $27.1 billion from $17.4 billion a year previously as a result of a decrease in value of other services provided to non-residents, as well as a growth in imports of travel services.
The total deficit in primary and secondary income fell by half or $22.4 billion to $23 billion from $45.4 billion, mostly as a result of a significant drop in dividends accrued by Russian companies in favor of non-residents compared to January-October 2022.
The growth in foreign assets totaled $38.6 billion against $87.9 billion in 10M 2022. As in 2022, an increase in other investments in the form of accounts receivable, including transactions on outstanding foreign trade settlements, as well as a growth in direct investment continue to play a significant role.
The reduction in external liabilities was $3.2 billion against $109.7 billion in January-October 2022. The decline in this year was driven by the decrease in the accumulated volume of direct investment by non-residents.
The current account surplus in October 2023 was almost at the level of the previous month at $11.2 billion compared with a surplus of $11.4 billion in September, adjusted from a preliminary estimate of $9.6 billion. The trade surplus was $14.3 billion, having decreased by $1.0 billion compared to September 2023 mainly because of the reduction in exports of goods by $2.8 billion with the decline in imports by $1.8 billion.
There was an estimated $2.2 billion deficit in the balance of services in October, as in September.
The total deficit in primary and secondary income increased in October by $0.9 billion after rising $1.7 billion in September, mostly as a result of a drop in dividends accrued by Russian companies in favor of non-residents compared to the previous month.
External liabilities reduced by $5.0 billion for the first time after the growth in the previous two quarters of this year.
The growth in foreign assets totaled $5.2 billion against $11.5 billion a month earlier. As in September 2023, an increase in other investments in the form of accounts receivable, including transactions on outstanding foreign trade settlements, continues to play a significant role.
The baseline scenario of the Central Bank's forecast, which was updated at the end of October, projects that, given an average annual Brent crude price of $83 per barrel, there will be a current account surplus of $60 billion, visible trade surplus of $122 billion, deficit in services trade of $31 billion and primary and secondary incomes deficit also of $31 billion.