OPEC raises estimate for Russia's output of liquid hydrocarbons by 80,000 bpd to 10.6 mln bpd in 2023 and 2024

MOSCOW. Nov 13 (Interfax) - Russia should cut production of liquid hydrocarbons (oil and condensate) by 400,000 barrels per day to 10.61 million bpd in 2023 from 11.03 million bpd in 2022, OPEC said in its monthly report.

OPEC had forecast in its previous monthly report that Russia would produce 10.53 million bpd in 2023, thus the organization reduced its estimate for the decline in output by 80,000 bpd, since the forecast for liquid hydrocarbon production in Russia rose by a similar amount for 2023.

The dynamics resulted from a revision in the forecast for the production of liquid hydrocarbons in Russia in the third quarter and the fourth quarter. OPEC analysts had projected the figures at 10.62 million bpd and 9.47 million bpd, respectively, the previous month, and they have raised the figures by 150,000 bpd and 160,000 bpd, respectively, in the latest monthly report. Consequently, Russia's oil and condensate production should total 10.77 million bpd in the third quarter and 9.63 million bpd in the fourth quarter, according to the organization's analysts.

OPEC emphasizes that the updated forecast accounts for Russia's voluntary commitments to cut oil supplies to foreign markets, as extended in early September until the end of 2023.

According to the monthly report, Russia ramped up output of liquid hydrocarbons by 85,000 bpd month-on-month to 10.82 million bpd in September at 9.5 million bpd of oil and 1.3 million bpd of condensate. Consequently, Russia's oil production for the fourth consecutive month was in line with the target level as part of the voluntary commitments to cut output by 500,000 bpd to the February level of 9.95 million bpd.

OPEC expects Russia to maintain the production of liquid hydrocarbons in 2024 at the level of 2023. Consequently, the organization has also raised its forecast by 80,000 bpd compared to the previous month's outlook to 10.61 million bpd.

In addition to Russian oil companies increasing production at several fields, the analysts also forecast that Rosneft , RussNeft , Lukoil , Gazprom , Neftisa Oil Company, and TenderResource, respectively, plan to launch new facilities, though declining production at mature fields should offset any growth.