USDA upgrades its assessment of transfer stocks of corn in Ukraine by 1 bln tonnes

MOSCOW. Oct 13 (Interfax) - The United Stated Department of Agriculture (USDA) has upgraded its assessment of transfer stocks of corn in Ukraine in the 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 marketing years by 1 billion tonnes to 2.41 million tonnes and 5.34 million tonnes, respectively.

The remaining forecast regarding Ukraine was left on the level of the September report with an exception for a small decrease, by 30,000-50,000 tonnes, of the estimates of transfer stocks of both wheat and other feed grain (excluding corn) and an increase of production and domestic consumption of feed grain by 100,000 tonnes, Ukrainian media outlets said with a reference to the USDA report in October.

In particular, the forecast of wheat and corn harvest still remains at the level of 22.5 million tonnes and 28 million tonnes, respectively, and export of these grain crops - 11.5 million tonnes and 19.5 million tonnes.

The upgraded assessment of the harvest of other feed grains stands at 6.57 million tonnes and their domestic consumption at 4.59 million tonnes, whereas the assessment of export remains at 1.87 million tonnes.

The forecast of transfer stocks of wheat following this marketing season is 4.08 million tonnes and other feed grains without corn 0.88 million tonnes.

Overall, the upgraded global forecast of grains in the 2023-2024 marketing year deteriorated by 3.5 million tonnes to 1,051 million tonnes due to the decrease of harvest in Australia, Kazakhstan and Ethiopia, which is partially compensated by the increase in production in the U.S.

The estimate of global consumption decreased by 3 million tonnes to 792.9 million tonnes, in particular, due to the decrease in consumption of fed and transfer stocks in Russia and Kazakhstan. The biggest reduction of wheat for food purposes, seeds and industrial use will apply to Ethiopia and Nigeria.

The new forecast of global trade deteriorated by 1.1 million tonnes to 206.3 million tonnes due to the decrease of export from Australia, Brazil and Kazakhstan, which is partially compensated by the growth of Russian export.

The forecast of global ending stocks of wheat in 2023-2024 were reduced by 0.5 million tonnes to 258.1 million tonnes, the lowest level since the 2015-2016 marketing year, USDA said.

Global ending stocks of corn will be higher because of transfer stocks in Ukraine and Moldova. But overall, they will be reduced by 1.6 million tonnes to 312.4 million tonnes.