OPEC: Russia to reduce liquid hydrocarbons production to 10.1 million bpd by 2028, increase to 10.7 million bpd by 2035 due to the commissioning of large projects

MOSCOW. Oct 9 (Interfax) - Production of liquid hydrocarbons in Russia in 2028 will be 10.1 million bpd, 0.9 million bpd less than in 2022, after which a recovery will begin due to the commissioning of large projects that will compensate for the decline in production in mature fields, OPEC analysts write in their annual review.

A gradual decrease in oil and condensate production is expected in Russia through 2030. By 2025, it will be down to 10.2 million bpd and by 2027 to 10.1 million bpd, OPEC said. Recovery will begin in 2030, when analysts predict production of liquid hydrocarbons in Russia will reach 10.3 million bpd. By 2035, the figure will increase to 10.7 million bpd and stay at that level for five years.

OPEC analysts emphasize that a significant decrease in oil and condensate production at mature fields will be largely compensated by the commissioning of new projects, primarily the Vostok Oil project.

"Oil exports from the Vostok Oil project will reach 600,000 bpd starting in 2024, and will increase to 2 million bpd by 2030, mainly along the Northern Sea Route," the report says, citing Russian government data.

In 2045, liquid hydrocarbon production in Russia is expected to reach 10.5 million bpd.