Warm weather forecast for Europe this October, Gazprom application for Ukraine is 42 mcm
MOSCOW. Sept 29 (Interfax) - The latest weather forecast for Europe in October is showing substantially higher temperatures than it had previously.
If rather severe weather was initially expected (4 degrees colder than the climate norm), then the updated temperatures are almost on par with the norm. September this year in Europe was very warm at five degrees above normal.
Warmer or neutral weather relative to long-term averages is an advantage for consumers, as they use energy resources, including gas, less intensively.
UKRAINIAN TRANSIT
The Ukrainian GTS Operator (OGTSU) accepted an application from Gazprom for transportation on Friday of 42.4 mcm, the Ukrainian company reported. Thursday's number was the same. Capacities are declared for one of the two entry points into the country's gas transportation system, the Sudzha gas measuring station. The application for transit through the Sokhranovka GIS was not accepted.
The published nomination is the maximum technically possible application, considering the restrictions introduced by the Ukrainian side.
The official representative of the monopoly, Sergei Kupriyanov, told reporters: Gazprom is supplying Russian gas for transit through the territory of Ukraine in the volume confirmed by the Ukrainian side through the Sudzha GIS, 42.4 mcm on September 29. The application for the 'Sokhranovka' GIS was rejected."
OGTSU declared force majeure on the acceptance of gas for transit through Sokhranovka, since it allegedly cannot exercise operational and technological control over the Novopskov compressor station. The route through Sokhranovka usually provides transit of more than 30 mcm per day. The Russian concern believes that there are no grounds for force majeure, and there are no obstacles to continuing to operate there as before.
EUROPEAN MARKET
Wind generation remains within the normal range for this season. Wind turbines provided 16% of the region's electricity needs on September 28, the WindEurope association said. In September 2022, they contributed 13.5%, and 13% in August 2023.
The spot price of gas in Europe remained almost unchanged on Thursday. The contract for day-ahead delivery at the TTF hub in the Netherlands closed at $438 per thousand cubic meters.
The price gap for LNG in Asia compared to Europe is growing. November futures for the JKM Platts index (Japan Korea Marker, reflects the spot market value of cargo delivered to Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan) is trading at $527; futures for LNG supplied to NW Europe (LNG North West Europe Marker) - $458.
RESERVES IN EUROPE
The level of natural gas reserves in Europe has become a key market indicator for the global market. The region as a whole continues to pump gas into storage facilities. However, in parallel, withdrawal is also increasing, that is, net injection has almost reached zero and is on the threshold of becoming net withdrawal.
Current inventory levels reached 95.15%, which is 8 percentage points above the average for the same dates over the past five years, Gas Infrastructure Europe said.
During the gas day on September 27, reserves increased by 0.13 percentage points. The pace is noticeably lower than normal levels over the past five years. Nevertheless, target storage capacity by the beginning of the sampling season has already been achieved.
European LNG terminals operated at an average productivity of 50% in August; since the beginning of September, the average load has been at 48%. LNG imports in September are expected to revisit 2021 minimums.
RESERVES IN USA
The state of reserves in American underground gas storage facilities is becoming increasingly important as the country actively increases exports.
The US continues its pumping season. During the next reporting week, gas reserves increased by 2.5 bcm, which is at the standard volume level for this time of year.
The country's current inventory level is 70%, which is 6 percentage points higher than the average over the past five years, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.