22 Sep 2023 18:17

Econ Ministry sees 'new equilibrium' on FX market in 2024-2026 at level of 90-92 rubles/$1 - Reshetnikov

MOSCOW. Sept 22 (Interfax) - The dollar exchange rate at the end of 2023 is expected to be around 94 rubles, and a 'new equilibrium' may take shape in 2024-2026 at a level of 90-92 rubles/$, Russian Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said, presenting an updated macro forecast for 2023-2026 at a government meeting.

"By the end of this year, the ruble will strengthen to 94 rubles/$. In 2024-2026, given changes in the structure of payments and the level of capital outflow, a new equilibrium will take shape at the level of 90-92 rubles/$," the minister said.

As reported, the Economic Development Ministry is forecasting the average annual dollar exchange rate in 2023 at a level of 85.2 rubles/$, in 2024 - 90.1 rubles, in 2025 - 91.1 rubles, and in 2026 - 92.3 rubles.

The current account balance, according to the ministry's forecast, will fall to $74.4 billion in 2023 from $236.1 billion in 2022 and will be $80.7 billion in 2024, $77.8 billion in 2025, and $80.8 billion in 2026.

The Economic Development Ministry is forecasting a decrease in exports of goods from Russia in 2023 to $459.1 billion from $590.8 billion in 2022, and growth in imports to Russia to $313.8 billion from $276.7 billion.

The ministry is forecasting exports from Russia at $471.0 billion in 2024, $481.1 billion in 2025, and $496.7 billion in 2026.

Imports to Russia in 2024 are forecast at $319.7 billion, followed by $326.8 billion in 2025 and $335.5 billion in 2026.

The Economic Development Ministry has raised its Russian inflation forecast for 2023 to 7.5% from 5.3% in the April version. The forecast for 2024 was also raised to 4.5% from 4.0%, and was unchanged for 2025 and 2026, equal to the target of 4.0%.

"In terms of inflation, we are factoring in some growth by the end of the year [up to 7.5% in annualized terms], provided it slows down to 4.5% by the end of 2024. From 2025, inflation will reach the target level of 4.0%. It is important that social payments will be indexed to the level of actual inflation, while the inflation rate, which is included in the forecast, is used to formulate budget projections," he said.