Russian economy's growth potential after 2024 just over 2% per year - minister

MOSCOW. Sept 22 (Interfax) - The Russian economy could grow 2.8% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, after which its growth potential is just over 2% given existing labor and technological restrictions, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said, presenting the updated macro forecast for 2023-2026 at a cabinet meeting.

"We expect GDP growth to be 2.8% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024. We believe that the current fiscal and credit impetus will carry over into next year. But the growth rate in the final estimate is lower than it would have been without current monetary policy tightening - we reflected this [tightening] in the forecast. We consider further growth of just over 2% per year to be the potential growth rate, given the existing constraints, primarily technological, and on the labor market's part," he said.

"Nominal GDP will be 180 trillion rubles in 2024, more than 190 trillion in 2025 and more than 202 trillion rubles in 2026. This is more than what was included in the scenario conditions [the April forecast], on average by 9 trillion rubles annually," he said.

The Econ Ministry said earlier that it had raised its forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2023 to 2.8% from 1.2% in the April forecast. It expects GDP growth of 2.3% in 2024, compared with 2.0% forecast in April, 2.3% in 2025 also, compared with 2.6%, and 2.2% in 2026, compared with 2.8%.