Russian Econ Ministry forecasts 5.8% retail trade growth, 4.3% real incomes growth in 2023

MOSCOW. Sept 13 (Interfax) - The Russian Economic Development Ministry forecasts retail turnover will grow 5.8% in 2023, compared with the 5.3% it was forecasting in April, a ministry spokesperson told reporters.

The ministry's revised macroeconomic forecast was reviewed and generally approved by the government's budget commission on Tuesday.

Retail growth forecasts were revised to 3.6% from 3.5% for 2024, to 3.4% from 3.5% for 2025 and to 3.5% from 3.6% for 2026.

"We are forecasting fairly strong recovery in retail trade and services turnover both this year and in subsequent years. How will the growth in consumer demand be ensured? Firstly, due to the growth in household incomes. This year, despite higher inflation, we expect real growth for money incomes will exceed 4%. This is a fairly large figure. We predict robust income growth over the entire forecast horizon," the ministry said.

Real disposable income growth forecasts were revised to 4.3% from 3.4% for 2023 and to 2.7% from 2.6% for 2024. They were left at 2.6% for 2025 and changed to 2.3% from 2.7% for 2026.

Real wage growth forecasts were revised to 6.2% from 5.4% for 2023, to 2.5% from 2.8% in 2024, to 2.6% from 2.8% in 2025 and to 2.3% from 2.5% for 2026.