Analysts improve 2023 Russian GDP outlook, now expect 2.2% growth; inflation raised to 6.3% - Central Bank

MOSCOW. Sept 7 (Interfax) - Russia's GDP might grow 2.2% in 2023, analysts told the Central Bank in its latest monthly survey, carried out on September 1-5.

The forecast has improved from the 1.5% growth expected in the July survey.

The 2023 inflation forecast is now 6.3% instead of 5.7%.

The GDP growth forecast in 2024 is practically unchanged at 1.5% compared with 1.4%, and the 2025 forecast is absolutely the same at 1.5%.

Analysts raised their 2024 inflation forecast from 4.3% to 4.5%.

The survey results are the median of the 27 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.

The Central Bank in July improved its own forecast for GDP growth in 2023 to 1.5%-2.5% from 0.5%-2.0%. The 2024 growth forecast is 0.5%-2.5%.

The regulator said in July that it expected 5.0%-6.5% inflation in 2023 and that inflation would return to the 4% target in 2024.

The Central Bank said this week that GDP growth and inflation in Russia are trending towards the upper bounds of the July forecasts.

The Central Bank will unveil its updated forecasts following its rate-setting meeting on September 15.

Expectations among analysts for the average key rate increased over the entire forecast horizon: for 2023 from 7.9% to 9.3% per annum, for 2024 from 7.7% from 10%, for 2025 from 6.6% to 7.7%. The analysts are forecasting 6.5% in 2026.

The median assessment of the neutral key rate is unchanged at 6.0% per annum. The Central Bank raised its own neutral rate forecast in July to 5.5-6.5% from 5.0-6.0%.

The Central Bank raised the key rate 100 basis points to 8.5% in July and another 350 bps to 12% at an extraordinary meeting on August 15.