Ukrainian Grain Association improves 2023 harvest outlook to 80.5 mln tonnes

MOSCOW. Sept 4 (Interfax) - The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has reviewed its 2023 harvest outlook, raising it by another 3.7 million tonnes to 80.5 million tonnes of grain and oilseed crops, compared to 73.8 million tonnes Ukraine harvested in 2022, the association said in a statement.

Hence, it has improved its previous outlook by 4.8%.

The increase in the forecast for this year's crop is due to favorable weather conditions and better crop yields than expected, even though the planted area is nearly 2 million hectares less than last year, Ukrainian media quoted the UGA as saying in its statement.

The UGA improved its wheat harvest outlook in 2023 to 22 million tonnes from 20.2 million tonnes, compared to 20.2 million tonnes it actually harvested in 2022 and a record 33 million tonnes in 2021.

The association increased its barley harvest forecast in 2023 to 5.8 million tonnes from 5.2 million tonnes, compared to 5.8 million tonnes it harvested in 2022. It also increased its corn harvest projections to 28 million tonnes from 26.9 million tonnes (27.3 million tonnes harvested in 2022).

The UGA also left its previous sunflower harvest projections at 13.9 million tonnes, compared to 11.1 million tonnes actually harvested in 2022, while increasing the expected amount of sunflower seeds to be processed in 2023 to 13.2 from 12.5 million tonnes.

It anticipates Ukraine's rapeseed harvest to reach 4.1 million tonnes and soybeans 4.8 million tonnes in 2023.

Ukraine could potentially export about 16 million tonnes of wheat in the 2023/2024 marketing year, considering that the carryovers amounted to 4.4 million tonnes at the start of the season, the UGA said. Barley exports could reach 3 million tonnes, corn about 22 million tonnes, sunflower 0.5 million tonnes, rapeseed 4 million tonnes, and soybeans 3.3 million tonnes, it said.

In general, Ukraine's grain and oilseed exports in the new 2023/2024 marketing year could reach nearly 49 million tonnes, compared to 58 million tonnes in the past marketing year that ended on June 30, 2023. The UGA pointed out that its export projections were based on the premise that Ukraine was able to export through its Black Sea ports and that the logistics of alternative routes, including that via the Danube, were improved and made less costly.

The Ukrainian Grain Association brings together producers, processors, and major exporters of grain accounting for about 90% of Ukrainian annual grain exports.