Potential for Russian grain exports this farming year exceeds last season's record 60 mln tonnes

MOSCOW. Aug 23 (Interfax) - Russia's grain export potential in this farming year (July 2023-June 2024) is significantly higher than in the record-setting previous season, according to estimates by grain market experts.

In the prior agricultural year, 60 million tonnes of grain were exported, including 47 million tonnes of wheat.

"This season, the potential for exports of grain and leguminous crops, including their supplies to EAEU countries, is estimated at 64.2 million tons, including 50.5 million tonnes of wheat," ProZerno head Vladimir Petrichenko told Interfax.

"But this is the potential figure, whereas real exports will depend on the volume of the quota to be determined by the Agriculture Ministry [the quota will be in effect from February 15 to June 30, 2024]," he said.

According to the expert, barley exports may be higher than last year's figure - 5.4 million tonnes compared with 4.8 million tonnes last season. "But there will be no growth for corn," Petrichenko said.

"Yes, corn, primarily in the south, was let down by drought at the most crucial moment," said Dmitry Rylko, general director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR).

Because of this, there's no ruling out a "slightly reduction" in the forecast of the export potential of all grains, which IKAR currently estimates at 63 million tonnes. Wheat exports are forecast at 48.5 million tonnes.

These estimates are based on a forecast of 139 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops harvested this year, Rylko said, including 89.5 million tonnes of wheat. If such figures are achieved, they will be the second after the record harvest in 2022 - 157.7 million tonnes, including 104.2 million tonnes of wheat.

In addition, last year's rather large grain stocks also influenced export estimates, the IKAR chief said.

According to Rosstat, stocks of grain and leguminous crops in Russian agricultural organizations, as of the end of July, amounted to 24.9 million tonnes, 6.8% more than last year (23.3 million tonnes). This includes wheat stocks, which were 1.1% higher - 18.7 million tonnes compared with 18.5 million tonnes.

Grain market expert Alexander Korbut also estimates current export potential at above last year's figure. "If the harvest continues without complications and there are no problems in the Black Sea, we forecast grain exports at 61-62 million tonnes, of which 48.5 million tonnes will be wheat," he said.

According to him, these figures also include large carryover stocks, which are available primarily in the south and the Black Earth region. "But the main thing, of course, is that there is good demand," he said.

This season's export destinations will be quite traditional with "offshoots to Latin America and Southeast Asia," Korbut said. "First and foremost these will be Turkey, Egypt, Iran, and Middle Eastern countries. It is worth hoping for purchases from Saudi Arabia and Algeria, which have recently become major importers of Russian grain," he said. "African countries can also be seen as promising markets. Humanitarian supplies have been announced to some of them, but in general, commercial deals are also possible," Korbut said.

As reported earlier, the Grain Union estimates that grain exports in August may reach 5 million tonnes compared with 4.5 million tonnes in August last year.

The Agriculture Ministry estimates grain exports in this agricultural year at 55 million tonnes, including 45 million tonnes of wheat.