USDA raises Ukraine grain harvest forecast by 6 mln tonnes, sees no prospect of export growth

MOSCOW. Aug 14 (Interfax) - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its August report improved its wheat harvest forecast for Ukraine in the 2023-2024 marketing year (MY) from 17.5 million tonnes to 21 million tonnes and raised the corn harvest forecast from 25 million tonnes to 27.5 million tonnes due to the bigger area under crops than initially expected and the second largest yield in Ukraine's history.

Meanwhile, because of the suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the export forecast remains unchanged at 10.5 million tonnes and 19.5 million tonnes, respectively, Ukrainian media said, citing the USDA document.

As a result, USDA raised its forecast for domestic consumption of wheat from 7.1 million tonnes to 8.1 million tonnes and increased its forecast for carryover stocks as of the end of this MY to 1.59 million tonnes to 4.13 million tonnes, whereas for corn the entire harvest growth forecast is balanced by an increase in the expected carryover stocks from 1.89 million tonnes to 3.89 million tonnes.

On the whole, USDA raised its forecast for Ukraine's feed grain harvest in the 2023-2024 MY from 31.47 million tonnes to 33.97 million tonnes, putting feed grain exports at 21.37 million tonnes and improving the carryover stock forecast from 2.27 million tonnes to 4.77 million tonnes.

The wheat harvest estimates for the 2022-2023 MY offered in USDA's updated report are the same as those contained in its report a month earlier - 21.5 million tonnes versus 33.01 million tonnes in the previous year. Wheat exports are estimated at 16.8 million tonnes versus 18.84 million tonnes, with the carryover stocks declining from 5.27 million tonnes to 1.65 million tonnes.

According to USDA data, the feed grain harvest dropped to 33.93 million tonnes from 53.51 million tonnes in the 2021/2022 MY, whereas feed grain exports edged down to 30.80 million tonnes from 32.93 million tonnes because of a decline in carryover stocks from 8.69 million tonnes to 2.15 million tonnes.

The corn harvest in the previous MY fell to 27 million tonnes from 42.13 million tonnes the year before, but these exports grew to 28 million tonnes from 26.98 million tonnes, including due to a decline in carryover stocks from 7.59 million tonnes to 1.39 million tonnes.

The new USDA forecast project the world's wheat harvest in the 2023-2024 MY at 793.4 million tonnes, which is 3.3 million tonnes less that in the previous forecast. Total wheat exports are expected to stand at 209.4 million tonnes, which is 2.23 million tonnes less than initially expected. Analysts have projected the world's total wheat stocks at 265.6 million tonnes, as of the end of this marketing year, which is 0.92 million tonnes less than the figures given in the previous forecast.

The forecast for the world's corn production in the 2023-2024 MY was reduced by almost 11 million tonnes to 1.213 billion tonnes, while the corn export forecast was decreased by 2.07 million tonnes to 196.19 million tonnes.

USDA also decreased its forecast for wheat production in the U.S. by 0.13 million tonnes to 47.2 million tonnes and projected U.S. wheat exports at 19.05 million tonnes, or 0.68 million tonnes less than initially expected.

The corn harvest forecast was reduced by 5.71 million tonnes to 398.82 million tonnes, and the corn export forecast was cut by 1.27 million tonnes to 58.65 million tonnes.

USDA also worsened its wheat harvest forecast for the European Union by three million tonnes to 135 million tonnes, but kept the EU wheat export forecast unchanged at 38.5 million tonnes.

The feed grain forecast for the EU was reduced by 6.85 million tonnes to 136.45 million tonnes, the EU feed grain forecast was cut by 2.21 million tonnes to 10.59 million tonnes. The corn harvest estimate for the EU was reduced by 3.7 million tonnes to 59.7 million tonnes, and the EU corn export forecast was reduced by 0.9 million tonnes to 4.1 million tonnes.

USDA projected Russia's wheat harvest at 85 million tonnes and raised its wheat export forecast for Russia by 0.5 million tonnes to 48 million tonnes. USDA left its feed grain export forecast for Russia unchanged at 8.91 million tonnes, but expects Russia's feed grain production to decline by 2.85 million tonnes to 39.4 million tonnes. USDA again projected corn exports from Russia at 4.2 million tonnes, but expects Russia's corn production to drop by 1.7 million tonnes to 14.6 million tonnes.