Analysts have improved 2023 Russian GDP outlook, now expect 1.5% growth; inflation raised to 5.7% - Central Bank
MOSCOW. July 13 (Interfax) - Russia's GDP might grow 1.5% in 2023, analysts told the Central Bank in its latest monthly survey, carried out on July 7-11.
The forecast has improved from the 0.8% growth expected in the June survey.
The 2023 inflation forecast is now 5.7% instead of 5.5%.
The survey results are the median of the 25 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The analysts raised their forecasts for the ruble's average annual exchange rate of against the dollar for 2023 from 76.9 to 81.8 rubles/$1, for 2024 from 77.9 to 85 rubles/$1 and for 2025 from 79.5 to 85 rubles/$1.
Expectations for the average key rate increased over the entire forecast horizon: for 2023 from 7.5% to 7.9% per annum, for 2024 from 7.0% to 7.7% and for 2025 from 6.0% to 6.6%. The median assessment of the neutral key rate is unchanged at 6.0% per annum.
The GDP growth forecast in 2024 and 2025 is unchanged at 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.
Analysts raised their 2024 inflation forecast from 4.0% to 4.3%, and kept their 2025 forecast at 4.0%.
The analyst said the Urals crude oil price forecast for 2023 was $57 per barrel, up from $56 in the June survey, rising in 2024 to $60 and remaining at that level in 2025, in line with the June forecasts.
The Central Bank in April improved its own forecast for GDP in 2023 to 0.5%-2.0%. It will unveil an updated forecast after its June 21 rate-setting meeting.
The Russian Economic Development Ministry's official forecast unveiled in April is for GDP to grow 1.2% in 2023, but the ministry is prepared to review its outlook given that growth has been better than it expected. Russia's GDP might grow 1.5-2% in 2023, President Vladimir Putin said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June. GDP might to grow more than 2% in 2023 "unless there are force majeure circumstances," Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said at a meeting with Putin on July 5.
The Central Bank's 2023 inflation forecast is 4.5-6.5%, while the Econ Ministry thinks 5.3% is likely.