6 Jul 2023 19:17

Rapeseed harvest in Ukraine in 2023 unlikely to be large due to low yields - analysts

MOSCOW. July 6 (Interfax) - The low average yield of rapeseed at the level of 1.2-1.3 tonnes/ha will not allow Ukrainian farmers to collect a record harvest of the crop this year, Ukrainian media reported, citing the forecast of experts from the analytical center of the Start cooperative, created as part of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).

The analysts' forecast is published on the VAR website.

"Ukraine is already harvesting a new crop of rapeseed. According to preliminary forecasts, farmers were counting on a high shaft of oilseeds, but official data show that the average rapeseed yield is still low, at 1.2-1.3 tonnes/ha," analysts say.

In the future, yield indicators may even out, but there will be no record harvest. Rapeseed prices have started to rise sharply, and this trend will continue both in Ukraine and in the world, forecasts say.

"We are seeing an increase in prices for rapeseed. In small river ports, indicative prices for the week increased from 330 euro/tonne to 345 euro/tonne. The supply of Ukrainian rapeseed was low last week, and it will not change quickly, because the harvest just started. Therefore, we can expect that in small ports prices will indicatively rise to 348 euro/tonne by the end of the week, and on CPT terms up to 355-360 euro/tonne in the coming weeks," the center's analysts believe.

Processors give purchase prices for rapeseed in a wide range depending on the region - UAH 12,300-13,200/ tonne, the lowest, are now in the Odessa region.

World prices for biodiesel are rising again and vegetable oils are becoming more expensive, so rapeseed will rise in price on the exchanges. But July and early August will be unfavorable for sales with the pressure of a new crop, analysts say.

The Ukrainian Grain Association predicts a rapeseed harvest in the country in 2023 of 3.8 million tonnes, while the Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business is forecasting 2.9 million tonnes.

The official exchange rate on July 6 is UAH 36.57/$1.