Central Bank says Russia's 2023 trade surplus could be lower than forecast in April

NOVOSIBIRSK. June 30 (Interfax) - Russia's trade surplus in 2023 could be lower than the $117 billion the Central Bank predicted in its updated macroeconomic forecast in April.

"What we are seeing now suggests it is more likely that the trade surplus will be somewhat smaller because the picture for imports is turning out to be very positive," Kirill Tremasov, director of the CBR's Monetary Policy Department, at a press conference in Novosibirsk on Friday. He said imports were now at pre-crisis levels, which is a "vivid illustration" of how quickly the Russian economy has adapted to sanctions.

"As for exports, then on the contrary, we have growing sanctions pressure, moreover we are seeing the situation in many commodity markets deteriorate. So these divergent trends could lead to a smaller trade surplus," Tremasov said. The regulator will publish another updated forecast after its next board meeting on July 21.

Current foreign trade trends are being transmitted to the exchange rate and through that to the balance of inflation risks, CBR Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin said. He said the CBR board had been monitoring external conditions as a potential source of pro-inflationary risk since February and that "this is one reasons why the signal at the last meeting was toughened towards holding open the possibility of a rate increase at the board's next meetings".