Russian fertilizer exports in Q2-Q4 2023 could return to level of same period in 2021 - RAPU head

SHANGHAI. May 23 (Interfax) - Russian fertilizer exports in Q2-Q4 2023 could return to the level of the same period in 2021, Russian Fertilizer Producers Association (RAPU) head Andrei Guryev believes.

"Exports are recovering overall for a number of products although there is still a slight drop year-on-year owing to the supply of mainly potassium. We currently see fair conditions for the recovery of markets, which is foremost declining global prices for mineral fertilizers. I am certain that exports will recover in terms of volumes," Guryev told reporters on the sidelines of the Russia-China business forum.

Answering whether Russia could restore the volume of fertilizer exports fully in 2023, Guryev said that, "This is already not possible by the end of 2023. However, in general, if the first quarter is removed, then exports in the second quarter, third and fourth, [of this year] should recover to the [level of the] second-third-fourth quarters, respectively, of 2021, which was the highest in terms of exports." Guryev recalled that Russia exported around 38 million tonnes of fertilizers in 2021.

Fertilizer exports from Russia declined 15% in 2022, Guryev said previously. Meantime, the industry saw export revenue rise 1.5-fold to $19.3 billion last year, according to data of the Federal Customs Service (FCS).

The geography of exports of Russian fertilizers changed in 2022, as there was a substantial increase in supplies to India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, primarily to Turkey. European Union countries also increased their purchases of nitrogen fertilizers from Russia, and they reduced their own production. Growth totaled nearly 40% in the first 10 months of 2022, according to the analysts of the My Investments Telegram channel.

Export transportation of fertilizers through the RZD network decreased 2.6% year-on-year to 9.7 million tonnes in January-April 2023. Exports fell 41% to 2 million tonnes through border crossings, while they increased 18% to 7.7 million tonnes through ports. International transit of fertilizers rose 8-fold year-on-year to 2.9 million tonnes in January-April 2023.

Transportation of fertilizers for export through the Russian Railways network increased 32% year-on-year to 2.53 million tonnes in April 2023, according to the company's materials that Interfax has reviewed.