Actual price of Russian oil exports to exceed Urals forecast of $55/bbl, taking into account other bases - Russian Central Bank

MOSCOW. May 11 (Interfax) - The actual price of Russian oil exports in the medium term will be higher than the macro forecast of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) for Urals grade, as it will be formed from various benchmarks, the regulator said in its quarterly monetary policy report.

The CBR in February lowered its outlook for the price of Urals from $70 per barrel to $55/bbl for 2023, from $60/bbl to $55/bbl for 2024, and maintained the price at $55/bbl for 2025. When updating the medium-term macro forecast at the end of April, the CBR retained its forecast for Urals at $55/bbl for the entire three-year period.

The CBR notes on Thursday in its report that, "Since Russia exports several grades of oil (Urals, Siberian Light, ESPO, Sokol, ARCO, and other delivery bases) to different destinations with varying spreads to Brent, the actual export price of Russian oil is still formed from the prices of individual grades as weighted according to the volume of deliveries.

The CBR said that, "The actual export price of Russian oil will be slightly higher [than the forecast of $55/bbl of Urals], taking into account higher prices on other delivery bases."

Urals discount to Brent adjusted to $25 by April following the widening of the discount to $34 in January-February because of the embargo and the price cap, the CBR said in the report.