10 May 2023 13:41

U.S. Dept. of Energy boosts OPEC, Russia oil production forecasts slightly for 2023

MOSCOW. May 10 (Interfax) - The U.S. Department of Energy has increased the forecast for oil production by OPEC countries in 2023 by 70,000 bpd, while the outlook for production in Russia was adjusted up by 60,000 bpd, according to a monthly report by the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The agency slightly adjusted its production estimates for OPEC nations after last month's slump amid news of voluntary production cuts by some alliance members. The EIA now expects OPEC to produce 33.76 million bpd in 2023, down 410,000 bpd from 2022.

According to analysts at the U.S. Department of Energy, in addition to the voluntary reduction of oil production by some countries, the cartel's overall production will be affected by difficulties with oil exports from northern Iraq, as well as force majeure circumstances limiting supplies from Nigeria.

The EIA forecast for oil production in Russia in the current year was increased by 60,000 bpd to 10.61 million bpd. Thus, the agency expects oil production in Russia to drop by 330,000 bpd in 2023 (the April forecast was for 390,000 bpd).

The Department of Energy assumes that oil production in Russia has decreased in March and April due to the announced voluntary reduction of production by 0.5 million bpd, as well as the start of the repair season at oil refineries. According to the agency's estimates, it will end in June, which will contribute to gradual recovery of oil production in the second half of the year from 10.4 million bpd to 10.5 million bpd.

However, the agency still expects global liquids production to increase by 1.5 million bpd in 2023, to 101.34 million bpd, due to significant growth in non-OPEC countries that (excluding Russia) will increase production by 2.2 million bpd in 2023.