Forex sales under fiscal rule to fall 45% to 2 bln rubles per day from May 10 - Russian MinFin
MOSCOW. May 4 (Interfax) - The Russian Finance Ministry will reduce forex sales under the fiscal rule to the equivalent of 2 billion rubles per day in the period May 10-June 6 and will sell 40.4 billion rubles in the month, the ministry said.
This is around 45% less than the 3.7 billion rubles the ministry has been selling each day since April 7, totaling 74.6 billion rubles for the past month. The downward trajectory continues: sales fell by a third in April and 37.3% in March. But sales tripled in February compared with January to 3.2 billion rubles on a daily basis.
The anticipated oil and gas revenue shortfall for May is 8.1 billion rubles. The April forecast was 113.6 billion rubles. The difference between estimated and actual oil and gas revenue in the previous month was 32.4 billion rubles.
Buy/sell operations with forex in the domestic foreign exchange market under the fiscal rule mechanism resumed January 13 after their suspension in March last year. At the beginning of the year, the Finance Ministry and the Central Bank issued messages that forex transactions would be conducted on the Moscow Exchange in the Chinese yuan - ruble instrument with "tomorrow" settlement terms. In fact, only the sale of currency took place all this time.
The Ministry of Finance does not exclude the replenishment of the National Welfare Fund (NWF) in 2023. This is not something unrealistic and could happen if prices for exported Russian oil steadily exceed $60 per barrel, Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev said last month.
"Yes, this type of situation cannot be ruled out, that is, if actual revenues exceed the base number, the NWF will indeed be replenished. Our base is 8 trillion rubles, and at current production, at the current exchange rate ratio, this roughly corresponds to plus or minus $60 per barrel of our oil sold for export. In principle, we are already close to these values, so I wouldn't say it's unbelievable. If oil is consistently above $60, then yes, it is quite possible we can replenish the fund," he explained.