National Bank of Ukraine expects int'l reserves to grow 23% to $35 bln in 2023, agricultural export to decline by $200 mln in Q2
MOSCOW. April 27 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine forecasts the country's international reserves at about $35 billion at the end of 2023, while in January it expected $27 billion.
"Overall, inflows from international partners could exceed $42 billion this year. The inflows from partners will, among other things, contribute to the growth in international reserves to more than $35 billion as of the end of this year," NBU Governor Andrei Pyshny said at a briefing on Thursday, presenting the updated forecast. The briefing was streamed on YouTube.
The reserves are expected to reach $36.1 billion by the end of 2024, the previous forecast being $31 billion.
Ukraine's international reserves fell 7.9% during 2022 to $28.49 billion, so they could grow 22.9% in 2023.
The NBU has reduced its forecast of agricultural exports from Ukraine in Q2 2023 by $200 million because of the embargo imposed on Ukrainian agricultural products by Poland, Hungary, and some other countries, but it continues to adhere to its baseline forecast for the following periods, NBU Deputy Governor Sergei Nikolaichuk said.
"We have taken this factor into account and reduced [the forecast for] exports of our agricultural products by about $200 million in the second quarter. Certainly, losses from exports to the neighboring countries that have imposed relevant restrictions will be more substantial, but we have also taken into consideration options for reorienting ourselves to other countries, including owing to the use of the grain corridor," Ukrainian media quoted Nikolaichuk as saying.
The NBU did not anticipate extra losses in Q3 and Q4 2023, expecting developments in line with the January baseline scenario, which envisions the normal operation of the grain corridor all the time, he said.
Pyshny said the bank expected Ukrainian businesses to be able to quickly adapt to the changing conditions.
As reported earlier, Poland imposed a ban on imports of agricultural products from Ukraine on April 15, a step followed by Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria. These countries later unblocked transits but made them more complicated.
European Commissioner for Agriculture Janusz Wojciechowski said on April 25 that the European Commission and five countries, i.e. Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria, were close to settling the problem of Ukrainian agricultural imports. The European Commission proposed a temporary ban on imports of five of the most sensitive products, i.e. corn, wheat, rapeseed, sunflower, and sunflower oil, only to these five countries until June 5.
Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria have also proposed banning imports of eight more products, including honey, sugar, poultry, meat and dairy products, and extending the ban until the end of the year.