20 Apr 2023 18:35

Analysts have improved 2023 Russian GDP outlook, now expect drop of 0.1% instead of 1.1% - Central Bank

MOSCOW. April 20 (Interfax) - Russia's GDP might fall 0.1% in 2023, analysts told the Central Bank in its latest monthly survey, carried out on April 14-18.

The forecast has improved from the 1.1% decline expected in the March survey.

The 2023 inflation forecast is now 5.9% instead of 6%.

The survey results are the median of the 22 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.

The Economic Development Ministry last week improved its expectations for the Russian economy for 2023, forecasting growth of 1.2%. The previous forecast from September 2022 envisaged a decrease of 0.8%.

The Central Bank is currently forecasting GDP growth of between minus 1% and plus 1%. Judging by the data for the first quarter of 2023, the dynamics of Russia's GDP are closer to the "optimistic" part of the forecast range of the Central Bank for this year, Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin said this week. The CBR will publish an updated medium-term macroeconomic forecast following meeting of the board of directors on the key rate on April 28.

The GDP forecasts for 2024-2025 are in line with the March survey and assume 1.5% growth.

The median inflation forecasts were also unchanged at 4.1% in 2024 and 4% in 2025.