World Bank raises 2023 GDP growth forecast for Uzbekistan to 5.1%

TASHKENT. April 7 (Interfax) - The World Bank now forecasts Uzbekistan's GDP will growth 5.1% in 2023, compared with the 4.9% it was predicting in January and October.

"Growth is expected to moderate to 5.1% in 2023 and accelerate gradually in the medium term," the World Bank says in its latest Europe and Central Asia Economic Update.

GDP is forecast to grow 5.4% in 2024 and 5.8% in 2025.

The Russia-Ukraine situation and increased logistical challenges linked to the sanctions on Russia, are expected to prolong high food and energy prices and reduce private consumption growth, the World Bank said.

Private investment and trade are expected to grow, and the current account deficit to widen, with remittances to Uzbekistan expected to moderate from their peak in 2022, it said. The projected recovery in China may increase demand for Uzbekistan's textile and food exports. Higher revenues from gold and copper exports and slower public investment spending will see the fiscal deficit decline to 3.3% of GDP in 2023.

"The government is expected to adhere to its overall debt limits, with public debt and total external debt gradually falling to 32% and 55% of GDP, respectively, by 2025," the World Bank said.

Risks to economic growth in Uzbekistan include "a possible deeper contraction of Russia's economy and tighter-than-expected global financial conditions," it said. Positive trends may potentially include higher global gold, natural gas, and copper prices; and stronger productivity growth from ongoing structural reforms.

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan estimates GDP will grow 4.5-5% in 2023. It rose 5.7% in 2022.