GDP trends in H1 2023 in Ukraine might be better than earlier anticipated by NBU - deputy governor
MOSCOW. March 7 (Interfax) - A certain combination of factors gives reasons to speak of a more positive development of the economic situation in Ukraine in the first half of 2023 than the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) anticipated in January, NBU Deputy Governor Sergei Nikolaichuk said.
"There are risks [for a macroeconomic forecast] that the situation will be far better, as the power sector has manifested its resilience. We are likely to have better results in both the first and the second quarter of 2023," Ukrainian media quoted Nikolaichuk as saying at debates organized by the Center for Economic Strategy on Monday.
December and January saw a decline in economic sentiment, which was brief, and more optimistic expectations were recorded as early as in February, he said.
As reported earlier, the NBU said in a report published in January it expected that Ukraine's real GDP decline in Q1 2023 would slow down to 19% from 35% in Q4 2022 and 30.8% Q3 2022.
The NBU also predicted in January that the national economy would grow by 11.7% in Q2 2023, considering the low base of Q2 2022, when the country's GDP dropped by 37.2%.
The NBU anticipated at the time that the GDP growth would slow down to 1.5% in Q3 2023 and to 8.2% in Q4 2023, resulting in GDP's annual growth of 0.3% in 2023 following a 30.3% decline in 2022.
The NBU's outlook updated in January was worse than the forecast released in October 2022, when the bank expected the country's economy to decline by 17.5% in Q1 2023 and to grow by 13.9% in Q2 2023, with the annual GDP growth by 4%.
The Dragon Capital investment company on Monday improved its outlook for 2023 and now expects Ukraine's real GDP in 2023 to decline by only 0.5% instead of 5%, in view of an improvement in the power supply situation.