14 Feb 2023 16:55

OPEC lowers assessment for growth in supplies from non-OPEC countries by 110,000 bpd for 2023, decreases forecast slightly for Russia, United States

MOSCOW. Feb 14 (Interfax) - OPEC has reduced its assessment for growth in supplies of liquid hydrocarbons by 110,000 barrels per day to 67.01 million bpd from non-OPEC countries, according to the organization's monthly report.

The supply estimate has been adjusted downward by 40,000 bpd to 65.57 million bpd for 2022 and by 150,000 bpd to 67.01 million bpd for 2023. Consequently, the organization expects that growth in supplies of liquid hydrocarbons from non-OPEC countries will be 1.44 million bpd this year against 1.55 million bpd from a month earlier.

Estimates of oil and condensate production in Russia and the United States remain unchanged at 10.93 million bpd for 2022, while the outlook has been adjusted downward for both countries by 50,000 bpd to 10.13 million bpd and to 20.14 million bpd, respectively, for 2023. Consequently, the organization's analysts expect a decline in production by 900,000 bpd in Russia in 2023, and an increase by 1.11 million bpd in the United States.

The United States, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Guyana should be the main drivers of growth in supplies of liquid hydrocarbons in 2023, while Russia and Mexico are expected to post the largest declines in production. The organization also notes that uncertainties remain related to the effect on oil production of geopolitics and prospects for shale production in the United States.