30 Jan 2023 16:21

BP forecasts decline in Russia's oil output up to 2035 because of sanctions restrictions on access to technology, investments

MOSCOW. Jan 30 (Interfax) - Official and unofficial sanctions on Russian oil imports, as well as the closure of access to foreign technologies and financial markets, will lead to a decrease in crude production in the Russian Federation up to 2035, BP writes in its "Energy Outlook 2023" publication.

"'Energy Outlook 2023' is focused on three main scenarios: Accelerated, Net Zero and New Momentum. These scenarios are not predictions of what is likely to happen or what BP would like to happen. Rather, they explore the possible implications of different judgements and assumptions concerning the nature of the energy transition and the uncertainties around those judgements. The scenarios are based on existing technologies and do not consider the possible impact of entirely new or unknown technologies," BP said in the publication.

According to the company's experts, Russia's oil output should decrease from about 12 million barrels per day in 2019 to 7-9 million bpd in 2035 owing to the high rate of reduction in existing operating assets and the curtailment of new promising projects.

Meantime, OPEC's share in global production should increase to 45%-65% by 2050 from just over 30% currently.

Global demand for oil should plateau over the next 10 years before declining toward the end of the period under review, partly owing to a reduction in the use of refined products in road transportation, BP believes. Oil should continue to play an important role in the global energy system during the first half of the forecast period in the Accelerated and Net Zero scenarios, with global consumption of 70-80 million bpd in 2035. The decline will accelerate in the second half of the forecast, with demand expected to be around 40 million bpd as per Accelerated and 20 million bpd as per Net Zero by 2050. Oil consumption under the New Momentum scenario should remain close to 100 million bpd for most of the next decade, after which it will gradually decline to around 75 million bpd by 2050.

Accelerated envisages a reduction of 75% in CO2 emissions by 2050, Net Zero envisages a 95% reduction, and New Momentum a 30% reduction compared to 2019.