National Bank of Ukraine could start to lower policy rate in Q2 2024

MOSCOW. Jan 26 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine now forecasts it will start to lower its key policy rate from its current 25% per annum in Q2 2024, a quarter sooner than it anticipated in its previous forecast, Ukrainian media reported, quoting an NBU press release.

The NBU is now expecting the rate to fall to 21% at the end of 2024 and to 14% at the end of 2025.

There is a 30% likelihood that the rate will be between 23% and 27% from Q3 2023, between 17% and 24% by the end of 2024 and between 12% and 17% by the end of 2025.

There is a 50% likelihood that the rate will be 22%-28% from Q3 2023, then 15%-26% by the end of 2024 and 9%-20% by the end of 2025.

There is a 70% likelihood the rate will be 14%-31%, from Q3 2023, then 13%-29% by the end of 2024 and 6%-23% by the end of 2025.

The rate has been 25% since June 2022. The NBU again decided to hold the rate at that level on January 26.