Russia's GDP estimated to have contracted 2.5% in 2022, quarterly growth seen in Q3 and Q4 - Putin

MOSCOW. Jan 17 (Interfax) - Russia's GDP contracted 2.5% in 2022, according to preliminary estimates, while positive quarterly trends were already seen in the third and fourth quarters of the year on a seasonally adjusted basis, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting on economic issues.

"The actual trends [in the economy in 2022] were better than many experts' forecasts. According to the Economic Development Ministry, Russia's GDP declined in January-November 2022, but only 2.1%. While some experts in our country, not to mention foreign experts, foretold a contraction of 10%, 15%, and even 20%. A decline of 2.5% is expected on the whole for the year [2022]," Putin said.

"Economic growth [against the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted] was recorded already by the third and fourth quarters, compared, it's true, to a sharp contraction in the second quarter. And our task is to maintain and cement this positive trend," he said.

Rosstat will publish its first assessment of GDP in 2022 in mid-February 2023.

The Economic Development Ministry's official forecast projected that GDP would contract by 2.9% in 2022 and 0.8% in 2023, but grow by 2.6% in 2024 and 2025.

The Central Bank of Russia's October forecast for 2022-2025 projected that GDP will shrink by 3-3.5% in 2022 and by 1-4% in 2023, and then grow by 1.5-2% in 2024-2025.

The consensus forecast of analysts polled by Interfax at the end of December projected that GDP would shrink by 2.7% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023.