9 Jan 2023 09:53

Russian steel output expected to grow 4% in 2023 after falling 5.5% in 2022 - strategy of the steel industry

MOSCOW. Jan 9 (Interfax) - Crude steel production in Russia fell 5.5% to 73.5 million tonnes in 2022 from 77.8 million tonnes in 2021, according to preliminary figures cited in a strategy for the development of the steel industry to 2030 prepared by the Industry and Trade Ministry and approved by the government.

The baseline scenario of the strategy projects that steel production, including new territories, will grow by 4.2% to 76.6 million tonnes in 2023, while the conservative scenario forecasts a drop of 7.3% to 68.1 million tonnes.

Production of finished rolled steel fell 7.4% to 61 million tonnes in 2022, as domestic consumption slumped 4.4% to 39 million tonnes and exports dropped 11.2% to 26 million tonnes.

The baseline scenario sees finished rolled steel output growing 6.5% to 65 million tonnes in 2023, as domestic consumption jumps 14.4% to 44.6 million tonnes while exports fall 5.8% to 24.5 million tonnes. The conservative scenario projects that rolled steel production will slump 2.1% to 59.7 million tonnes, with domestic consumption edging down 0.3% to 38.9 million tonnes and exports falling by 4.6% to 24.8 million tonnes.

Steel pipe production in Russia jumped 17% to 12.4 million tonnes in 2022, as domestic consumption surged 21.7% to 11.2 million tonnes while exports fell 16.7% to 1.5 million tonnes, preliminary figures showed.

In 2023, according to the base scenario, steel pipe production will edge up 0.8% to 12.5 million tonnes, as domestic consumption grows 0.9% to 11.3 million tonnes and exports remain flat at 1.5 million tonnes. The conservative scenario sees pipe production falling 2.4% to 12.1 million tonnes, with domestic consumption dropping 2.7% to 10.9 million tonnes and exports unchanged at 1.5 million tonnes.

Production of stainless steel rolled production tumbled 15.5% to 108,800 tonnes in 2022, as domestic consumption dropped 15.5% to 451,000 tonnes, imports fell 15.6% to 357,000 tonnes and exports plunged 16.7% to 15,000 tonnes.

The baseline scenario sees stainless steel output growing 0.5% to 109,300 in 2023, as domestic consumption climbs 3.4% to 466,500 tonnes and imports increase by 4.4% to 372,600 tonnes. The conservative scenario projects that stainless steel production will slump to 73,000 tonnes in 2023, with domestic consumption falling to 405,000 tonnes and imports dropping to 348,000 tonnes.

Forecast steel production, consumption, exports and imports (mln t unless otherwise indicated):

2022 2023 2024 2025 2030 Crude steel Baseline 73.5 76.6 78.1 81.2 90.4 Conservative 73.5 68.1 69.2 70.3 75.7 Rolled steel (baseline) Production 61 65 66.4 69.1 82.6 Consumption 39 44.6 46.1 48 58 Exports 26 24.5 24.6 25.5 29.5 Rolled steel (conservative) Production 61 59.7 60.7 61.6 66.4 Consumption 39 38.9 39 39 38.5 Exports 26 24.8 25.8 26.8 32.5 Stainless steel (baseline) Production ('000 t) 108.8 109.3 111 167 535 Consumption ('000 t) 451 466.5 486 506 616 Exports ('000 t) 357 372.6 401 376 201 Stainless steel (conservative) Production ('000 t) 71 73 98 154 309 Consumption ('000 t) 405 405 415 425 472 Exports ('000 t) 349 348 339 306 232 Steel pipes (baseline) Production 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.9 14.3 Consumption 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 12.6 Exports 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.0 Steel pipes (conservative) Production 12.4 12.1 12.3 12.4 13.3 Consumption 11.2 10.9 11.1 11.1 11.8 Exports 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8