Optimal FX rate for Russian economy currently 70-80 rubles/$1, this is a wish rather than a forecast - Belousov
MOSCOW. Dec 27 (Interfax) - An exchange rate of 70-80 rubles per dollar could be considered optimal in current conditions for the Russian economy and the balance of interests of exporters, but this is a wish rather than a forecast, First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov said.
"As for the exchange rate, we've had a lot of discussions on this topic with the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), but we see that now the rate has moved, has moved in the right direction," he said in an interview with the Rossiya 24 TV channel.
"The exchange rate problem is one of the most important, but this is what I'll tell you: this only became the case in the autumn. Before autumn or, let's say, before maybe Q3, I thought and still think that the exchange rate of 60 rubles per dollar was a benefit, because our main problem was with critical imports, with the restructuring of logistics flows," Belousov said.
"Now we have freed imports from all the barriers we possibly could. We were even criticized: duties were nullified jointly with the EAEU, the EEC and so on, customs regulator was eased significantly. What for? So that we could quickly rebuild logistics flows to the east and goods could enter the country. And goods entered the country. We now have a problem there, as you know, with the containers, to get the container into the country, we now have 'narrow bottlenecks' that prevent things getting in efficiently," the first deputy prime minister said.
A strong ruble has played its role for the economy, but now, with companies' revenues falling, it is generally better for the economy, including in terms of investment, to have a somewhat weaker ruble in the range of about 70-80 rubles per U.S. dollar, he said.
"A strong ruble has [already] played its role," Belousov said.
"But now we see that, in conditions when our companies' revenues are falling, our exports are falling, but they are inelastic to the exchange rate on the whole, exporters' revenues, of course, are slumping. But I repeat, overall revenues are slumping, and this is affecting investment. In these conditions it is, of course, good to have 70-80 rubles per dollar as the ruble's approximate exchange rate," Belousov said regarding his view that the current exchange rate is better for the economy.
"I don't just want to say, God forbid, that it [the exchange rate] will be like that, or you'll start commenting now, or better yet, do something or other. Things could go an entirely different direction. I'm expressing my wishes, but the rate outlook is set down in the forecast," he said.
As previously reported, the government projects (these expectations are included in the three-year budget) the average annual dollar exchange rate in 2023 at 68.3 rubles/$1 in 2023, 70.9 rubles/$1 in 2024 and 72.2 rubles/$1 in 2025.