Russian Econ Ministry adjusts estimate for GDP contraction in Jan-Oct 2022 to 1.9% from 2.1%

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Russian Econ Ministry adjusts estimate for GDP contraction in Jan-Oct 2022 to 1.9% from 2.1% - Reshetnikov

MOSCOW. Dec 19 (Interfax) - Russia's Economic Development Ministry has adjusted its estimate for the contraction in the country's GDP in January-October 2022 to 1.9% from 2.1%, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said when speaking at a meeting of the parliamentary assembly of Russia and Belarus.

"We have a 10-month estimate at a contraction of 1.9% [in GDP]," Reshetnikov said.

The ministry has adjusted its estimate for the dynamics of Russia's GDP for 10 months from a previous contraction of 2.1% in January-October.

The Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) released its first estimate for Russian GDP in the third quarter on December 14, estimating that the economy shrank by 3.7% year-on-year after contracting by 4.1% in the second quarter and growing by 3.5% in the first quarter. Rosstat thus revised its tentative estimate for the contraction of the economy in the third quarter made in mid-November, when it put the slump at 4.0%. Rosstat's estimate for the first nine months of 2022 has also been revised slightly to a year-on-year decline of 1.6% from the tentatively estimated 1.7%.

The Econ Ministry in its official forecast expects GDP to shrink 2.9% in 2022 and another 0.8% in 2023, but then to grow by 2.6% annually in 2024-2025.

Russia's GDP could decline less than recently expected in 2022, contracting approximately 2.5%, President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting of the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects. "A decline in GDP of approximately 2.5% is projected at the end of the year [in 2022]. I recently said 2.9% [decline in 2022, the official government forecast], but the latest forecasts speak to it being less at 2.5%," Putin said.

The Central Bank of Russia it expects GDP to decline by 3-3.5% in 2022 and by 1-4% in 2023, and grow by 1.5-2% annually in 2024-2025. The Central Bank of a expects GDP decline to be near 3% in 2022 or possibly less, depending on the dynamics seen in the last two months of the year, CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina said on December 16.