OPEC raises Russia oil supply forecast for 2022 by 30,000 bpd to 10.96 mln bpd

MOSCOW. Dec 13 (Interfax) - OPEC has lowered its non-OPEC liquids supply estimate by 10,000 barrels per day to 65.57 million bpd, while supply growth will total 1.89 million bpd, the organization said in its latest monthly report.

The estimate of oil and condensate production in Russia in 2022 was increased by 30,000 bpd to 10.96 million bpd, while the forecast for 2023 was kept at 10.08 million bpd. Thus, analysts expect an increase in Russian output by 160,000 bpd in 2022 and a decrease by 850,000 bpd in 2023.

The forecast for production in the United States in 2022 is also slightly increased, by 50,000 bpd to 18.98 million bpd, while the 2023 estimate of is maintained at 20.13 million bpd.

The production forecast for Other Eurasia was revised down, due to lower-than-anticipated production in Azerbaijan, as well as restricted output at an export terminal and a gas leak issue at the Kashagan field in Kazakhstan. Extended maintenance on UK offshore platforms, along with lower-than-anticipated output in Norway, reduced Q4 2022 output in the North Sea region.

The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the U.S., Canada, Guyana, Russia, China and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand.

Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2023 is forecast to grow by 1.5 million bpd to average 67.1 million bpd, largely unchanged from the previous report. The main growth drivers are expected to be the U.S., Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, whereas oil production is forecast to see declines in Russia and Mexico. Nonetheless, large uncertainties remain around European Union sanctions on Russian oil imports, other geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe, and U.S. shale output potential in 2023.

OPEC kept its estimates of oil demand in 2022 and 2023 at 99.6 million bpd and 101.8 million bpd, respectively.

The world oil demand forecast for 2022 remains unchanged at 2.55 million bpd. The oil demand was adjusted higher in Q3 2022, amid better-than-anticipated transportation fuel consumption in OECD, offset by a downwardly revised estimate for Q4 2022 due to a slowdown in the non-OECD amid reduced mobility and sluggish industrial activity in China. For 2023, world oil demand growth also remains unchanged at 2.2 million bpd, with the OECD growing by 0.3 million bpd and non-OECD growth forecast at 1.9 million bpd. This forecast is subject to many uncertainties including global economic developments, Covid-19 containment measures mainly in China and ongoing geopolitical tensions

OPEC crude oil production in November decreased by 744,000 bpd MoM to average 28.83 million bpd, according to available secondary sources.

Total output by OPEC + countries decreased by 683,000 bpd to 24.49 million bpd. At the same time, their permitted quota under the OPEC + agreement was 25.416 million bpd. Thus, they lagged 0.94 million bpd behind the plan.