17 Nov 2022 14:51

Macroeconomic forecast to be reviewed before yearend - Ukrainian first deputy PM

MOSCOW. Nov 17 (Interfax) - Ukraine will have to review the macroeconomic forecast and to evaluate economic losses in the light of the recent damage to energy facilities, Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister, Economy Minister Yulia Sviridenko said.

"The Ukrainian economy has shrunk 30%, so the macroeconomic forecast will have to be reviewed by the Economy Ministry, among others, before the end of this year," the Ukrainian media quoted Sviridenko as saying at the Kiev International Economic Forum on Thursday. These losses do not include the damage done to the national energy infrastructure, she said.

"So far, it's hard to tell," Sviridenko said in response to a question what a downgraded outlook might be.

As the third quarter of the year turned out better than expected for Ukraine, the Ukrainian Economy Ministry said that the forecast of the GDP fall in 2022 might be altered from 33.2% to approximately 30%. The reading was adjusted to 32% in the end of October, when the draft budget was being prepared for the second reading.

The GDP growth outlook for 2023 was downgraded from 4.6% to 3.2%.

In mid-October, the National Bank of Ukraine upgraded the forecast of economic decline from 33.4% to 31.5% in 2022, while downgrading the GDP growth forecast for next year from 5.5% to 4%.

Sviridenko said last week that the damage sustained by critical infrastructure elements in October pushed the GDP fall to 39%, as against October 2021, which is below the readings of September-August (35%).

"We estimate the GDP fall at about 30% over nine months. However, if [the damage done to energy facilities] continues, causing power outages, the GDP fall may be even larger," the ministry quoted her as saying.

In turn, Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko said this week that the Ukrainian GDP might decrease by 33-35% this year.