OPEC barely changes 2022, 2023 non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate, Russia forecast up slightly for 2022

MOSCOW. Nov 14 (Interfax) - OPEC has reduced its estimate for growth in supplies of liquid hydrocarbons from non-OPEC countries by 30,000 barrels per day to 65.6 million bpd, meaning an increase of 1.9 million bpd, OPEC said in its monthly report.

Consequently, OPEC has increased its 2021 supply estimate by 10,000 bpd, and reduced its 2022 forecast by 20,000 bpd.

OPEC has increased its estimate for production of oil and condensate in Russia by 70,000 bpd to 10.93 million bpd in 2022, and has maintained its forecast at 10.08 million bpd for 2023. Therefore, analysts expect growth in production of 130,000 bpd in Russia in 2022, and a decline of 850,000 bpd in 2023.

OPEC's forecast for output in the United States has not changed.

"Upward revisions to liquids production in Latin America and Russia were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. It should be noted, however, that considerable uncertainty remains with regard to Russia's liquid output in Q4 2022," OPEC said.

"In the U.S., drilling and completion activities have expanded, with movement no longer limited to core areas. However, supply chain issues and higher costs related to inflation remain challenges for equipment and service demand. Although higher crude oil production was broadly offset by lower non-crude oil output in August, U.S. liquids production is expected to rise at a slow and steady rate in the coming months. Accordingly, the U.S. liquids supply growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.1 million bpd," it said.

"The production forecast for Other Eurasia was revised down, due to lower-than-expected output in Azerbaijan, as well as on emergency repairs at an export terminal and planned maintenance in Kazakhstan. Extended maintenance on North Sea platforms also reduced Q3 2022 output in the region. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the U.S., Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while production is expected to see the largest declines in Norway and Thailand," the report said.

Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2023 is forecast to grow by 1.5 million bpd to average 67.1 million bpd, broadly unchanged from last month. Liquids supply in OECD countries is forecast to increase by 1.7 million bpd, while the non-OECD region is expected to show a decline of 0.2 million bpd. The main growth drivers are expected to be the U.S., Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, whereas oil production is forecast to see declines in Russia and Mexico," it said.