Ukraine's GDP decline accelerates to 39% in Oct 2022 - Economy Ministry

MOSCOW. Nov 10 (Interfax) - The breakdown of critical infrastructure in October accelerated Ukrane's GDP decline to 39% year-on-year, worse compared with a 35% decline seen in August and September, Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Sviridenko said at a meeting with representatives of the United States media.

"We estimate the GDP decline at about 30% in 9M22. However, if the [electricity] blackouts continue, the GDP drop may be deeper," she was quoted as saying by the ministry's press service, according to Ukrainian media reports.

Sviridenko also highlighted the importance of continued assistance to Ukraine. Ukraine counts on enhancing bilateral trade relations with the U.S., and on the involvement in investment insurance, she said.

As reported, after Q3 figures, which topped the forecast, the Economy Ministry used to speak of a possible improvement of the GDP decline outlook for 2022 from 33.2% to about 30%. However, it was later improved to only 32% in late October when elaborating the draft state budget for the second reading.

"Given the State Statistics Committee's operational estimate of the GDP [real GDP decline by 15.1% in Q1 and by 37.2% in Q2] and the estimation of the GDP decrease by 35% in Q3 and by 37% in Q4, the annual forecast of the real GDP decline in 2022 was adjusted to 32%," the government said in an explanatory note.

Additionally, the GDP growth forecast for 2023 was downgraded from 4.6% to 3.2%.

In mid-October, the National Bank of Ukraine improved its assessment of the economic slump this year from 33.4% to 31.5%, but at the same time worsened its GDP growth forecast for the next year from 5.5% to 4%.