Gas transit via Ukraine's GTS to halve in 2022 - forecast

MOSCOW. Nov 9 (Interfax) - Former head of the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) Sergei Makogon said on social media that he does not expect the amount of Russian gas transit via the Ukrainian gas transmission system (GTS) to be more than 21 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2022, even though Russia's Gazprom booked capacity of 40 bcm for transit this year.

According to current data from GTSOU, approximately 18.2 bcm of Russian gas were shipped through the gas transmission system of Ukraine between January 1 and November 7, 2022. Ukrainian experts' estimates indicate that if Gazprom keeps supplying 42.4 million cubic meters of gas per day for transit to Europe and Moldova, as it has done recently, Russian gas transit via Ukraine for the remainder of November and in December will stand at 2.3 bcm.

Thus, the overall amount of Russian gas transit via Ukraine's GTS is expected to be around 20.5 bcm in 2022, which is half the volume recorded in 2021 (41.6 bcm).

After gas flows via the Nord Steam 1 gas pipeline were halted, transit via Ukraine became the main route for Russian gas exports to the European Union, Makogon said.

"Our gas transmission system continues supplying gas to the homes of not only Ukrainian consumers but also European consumers," he said.

As reported, the amount of natural gas transit through the GTS of Ukraine stood at 41.6 bcm in 2021, a 25.4% drop from the 55.8 bcm transported via Ukraine in 2020. On the whole, the transit capacity of Ukraine's GTS was used by less than 30% in 2021.