9 Nov 2022 10:01

CBR three-year forecast sees discounts on Russian export commodities staying unchanged

MOSCOW. Nov 9 (Interfax) - The discounts at which Russian export commodities are currently being sold amid various sanctions imposed this year will not change significantly in the medium term, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) forecast.

Russian commodities continue to be sold at a discount on the world market, although it decreased somewhat in the third quarter of 2022, the CBR said in its latest monetary policy report, published on Tuesday.

"The baseline scenario [for the forecast for 2023 and the planning period of 2024-2025] assumes the size of the discount will remain close to the current level until the end of the forecast horizon," the report said.

The long-term equilibrium price for Russia's Urals crude is expected to be $55 per barrel. The CBR revised the average Urals price in 2022 for the purposes of model calculations for the baseline scenario to $78 from $80 in the July version. The trajectory of prices in 2023-2025 was left unchanged at $70, $60 and $55, respectively.

The CBR has raised its forecast for Russia's current account surplus in 2022 to $253 billion from $243 billion because both non-oil and gas and oil and gas exports turned out to be higher than expected, though imports were as well.