Ukrainian govt improves dollar exchange rate forecast to 45.8 hryvni/$1, NBU revenue target by 51.6 bln hryvni by 2023 year-end in draft state budget

MOSCOW. Nov 1 (Interfax) - The Ukrainian government, when elaborating the 2023 draft state budget for the second reading, has improved its estimate of the hryvnia exchange rate for the end of next year to 45.8 hryvni/$1 from 50 hryvni/$1 in the initial version, retaining the average annual exchange rate forecast at 42.2 hryvni/$1, deputy head of the parliamentary committee on finance, tax and customs policy Yaroslav Zheleznyak said.

According to Ukrainian media reports, the National Bank of Ukraine's (NBU) revenue forecast was increased by 51.6 billion hryvni to 71 billion hryvni, he said.

The deputy added that the government forecasts the return of 1.8 million Ukrainian citizens from abroad in 2023 after a negative migration balance of 9.43 million citizens in 2022.

As reported, Prime Minister Denis Shmygal said after the government had approved the 2023 draft state budget for the second reading on October 31 that the GDP growth rate forecast had been downgraded from 4.6% to 3.2% with a slight improvement in the inflation rate forecast from 30% to 28%.

He said that the revenue had been increased by over 50 billion hryvni and the expenditures by 66.8 billion hryvni.

The revenue in the 2023 draft state budget elaborated by the government for the second reading amounts to 1,329.26 trillion hryvni, the expenditures stand at 2,580.68 billion hryvni, the deficit ceiling is set at 1,296.54 billion hryvni or 20.6% of GDP and the national debt ceiling at 6,422.75 billion hryvni, Zheleznyak said.

The deputy noted that along with the rise in revenue from the National Bank, the revenue estimate from the import VAT was increased by 27.1 billion hryvni, from the personal income tax by 14.8 billion hryvni and from the excise tax on fuel by 7 billion hryvni, while the revenue forecast for the profit tax was lowered by 21.3 billion hryvni and for the VAT from the goods produced in Ukraine was decreased by 6 billion hryvni.

Zheleznyak added that the government has again budgeted 1.4 billion hryvni for the national telethon, "though the relevant amendment was dropped during the first reading," and increased spending on the State Road Fund by 7 billion hryvni to 64.3 billion hryvni.