OPEC expects oil production in Russia to fall to 10.1 mln bpd by 2027, recovery will be gradual

MOSCOW. Oct 31 (Interfax) - Oil production in Russia will decrease to 10.1 million bpd by 2027, after which a gradual recovery will begin, with output returning to 10.5 million bpd in the early 2030s, OPEC said in its annual World Oil Outlook.

Russian liquids supply is projected to decline in the short- and medium-term due to a combination of weaker domestic demand, embargos and self-sanctioning by purchasers of the country's oil. A near-full ban on imports of Russian crude into EU countries from December 5 and concurrent limitations on insurance, shipping and commodity trade finance, are likely to have a meaningful impact, OPEC said.

"Many international oil companies active in Russia's upstream have also announced divestments or a halt to activities, raising questions about continued investment and, in some cases, technology transfer," it said.

As a result, Russian liquids supply is expected to decline from 10.8 million bpd in 2021 to 10.1 million bpd by 2027. Thereafter, expectations are for a gradual and partial recovery in output, as domestic investment picks up, notably in the large project in Eastern Siberia. As a result, production levels are set to rise again to around 10.5 million bpd by the early 2030s, and are projected to average 10.4 million bpd by 2045.