NBU forecasts Ukraine's grain harvest to fall by 38.7% if crisis drags on until 2024

MOSCOW. Oct 31 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects that if the crisis continues until mid-2024, the country's grain and leguminous crops harvest will decrease (under the pessimistic scenario with the blockade of its ports) to 51.5 million tonnes in 2023 (40% down compared to 2021), and to 52.5 million tonnes in 2024 (38.7% decline).

According to the Ukrainian media citing the October NBU's inflation report, the key factor in forecasting the harvest volume will be the accessibility of the exports of agricultural products from the Ukrainian seaports.

Thus, under a scenario of the continuation of the crisis until mid-2023, the total yield of grains and leguminous crops in 2023 is expected to reach 57 million tonnes if Ukraine has full access to its agricultural exports from its Black Sea ports, and 51.5 million tonnes if they are blocked.

Equally, if the crisis drags on until mid-2024, Ukraine will be able to harvest 62 million tonnes of grains and leguminous crops in 2024, if there is a free export by sea, and 52.2 million tonnes in the case of a blockade of its port infrastructure.

At the same time, the National Bank forecasts the harvest of grains and leguminous crops at 52.5 million tonnes in 2022.

The bank noted that Ukraine harvested 75.1 million tonnes of grains and legumes in 2019, 64.9 million tonnes in 2020 and a record 85.7 million tonnes in 2021 during its years of independence.

As reported, Ukrainian agrarians harvested 48.81 million tonnes of major crops from a total area of 13.13 million hectares, or 70% of the previously planned areas, by October 28.

In 2021, Ukraine yielded a record harvest of grains, legumes and oilseeds totaling 106 million tonnes, including 84 million tonnes of grains and legumes and 22.6 million tonnes of oilseeds.