11 Oct 2022 16:18

IMF expects Russia's GDP to fall 3.4% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023

MOSCOW. Oct 11 (Interfax) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has again upgraded its forecast for Russia's economy in 2022 and now expects it to contract 3.4% instead of the 6% expected in July and the 8.5% projected in April.

The forecast for 2023 is also more positive, with Russia's GDP expected to decline 2.3% rather than 3.5%, according to the IMF's World Economic Outlook: Countering the Cost-of-Living Crisis, which was published on Tuesday.

The IMF in January projected prior to the start of the conflict in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions against Russia that Russia's economy would grow 2.8% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023.

The World Bank has improved its 2022 Russian GDP outlook and now expects a drop of 4.5% instead of the 8.9% that it was forecasting in June. The Russian economy might fall 3.6% in 2023 instead of 2% and grow 1.6% in 2024, less than the previous forecast of 2.2%, the World Bank said in its latest Europe and Central Asia Economic Update on October 5.

Russia's Economic Development Ministry forecasts the country's GDP to contract 2.9% in 2022 and 0.8% in 2023, and to grow 2.6% in both 2024 and 2025.

The Central Bank of Russia's current forecast, unveiled in July, is for a 4-6% decline in 2022 and a drop of 1-4% in 2023 but growth of 1.5%-2.5% in 2024. The forecast will probably be updated and improved at the next meeting of the CBR board of directors on October 28.

The IMF still thinks the global economy will grow 3.2% in 2022 but its 2023 growth outlook was lowered to 2.7%, from the 2.9% forecast in July.