6 Oct 2022 09:32

World Bank forecast for contraction in Russian GDP in 2022-2023 'overly conservative,' doesn't take into account govt measures - Reshetnikov

MOSCOW. Oct 6 (Interfax) - The World Bank's forecast for Russia's GDP to contract 4.5% in 2022 and 3.6% in 2023 is "overly conservative" and does not fully take into account the solutions and measures adopted by the Russian government and factored into the budget, Russian Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov told journalists in Moscow on Wednesday.

The World Bank on Tuesday upgraded its assessment for Russia's economy to decline to 4.5% in 2022 from the 8.9% drop projected in June. The bank has changed its forecast for 2023 from a decline in GDP of 2% to 3.6%, and growth of 1.6% is expected in 2024 compared to the earlier projected 2.2%.

Reshetnikov recalled that his ministry's forecast is more optimistic, projecting that GDP will contract by 2.9% in 2022 and 0.8%, and grow by 2.6% per year in 2024-2025.

"These are [the World Bank's] own estimates, which as a rule do not factor in the strategic measures being implemented and planned by countries' governments. For 2022, they are moving in the direction of our assessments, but their estimates are still overly conservative," Reshetnikov said.

"As for 2023, [World Bank experts] do not take into account the decisions that are factored into the budget and the priorities on which the Russian government is now working. Our forecast, which lies at the foundation of the budget, provides for the accelerated adaptation of the economy to the new conditions, which will make it possible to get through the phase of structural transformation of the economy in 2024 already and achieve sustainable economic growth," Reshetnikov said, commenting on the World Bank's forecast for 2023.

"Our forecast for the contraction of Russian GDP by 2.9% in 2022 and 0.8% in 2023 remains in force," he said.